Deep Currents

The cover story of Foreign Policy has some wise words on the kind of competition for power and influence that we’ll see unfolding in the coming few decades, a perspective that I think is a useful follow-up to Robert Kagan’s book on the rising competition between liberalism and autocracy. It’s co-authored by Steve Weber, a professor at Berkeley whom I’ve had the joy of working with on several projects, and these are ideas that I’ve heard him discussing for some time.

The point is that five big ideas shaped world politics in the 20th century, all of which served American interests at the time, and that the influence of all five are now fading fast. America is understandably fond of them but needs to move on. The five big ideas are:
1) Peace is better than war – but many countries now use small wars as a tool of policy, notably the US
2) Hegemony, at least the benign sort, is better than a balance of power – but the US has lost its position as hegemon
3) Capitalism is better than socialism – except that now there are many successful varieties of capitalism, some that sport heavy state involvement
4) Democracy is better than dictatorship – yet now China and Russia shine as examples of how autocrats can be effective at promoting prosperity
5) Western culture is better than all the rest – but it is now clear that Westernization will not simply trump the power of native cultural identity

America needs a new value proposition. This is not a “war of ideas” but competition in a marketplace, where strong offers are met with eager bids while weak offers are ignored. How will offerings be judged? Says Steve: the ability to provide balanced bargains, a just society, a healthy planet, and social harmony in spite of heterogeneity.

I wonder: who will we see taking up their call to arms?

Written: October 28th, 2008