New global scenarios from the National Intelligence Council

There is a brand-new set of scenarios, “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World,” laying out the future as viewed through the lens of American national security, the latest installment of a publication put out once every five years by the National Intelligence Council. They’re worth a read at the very least because it more or less represents the views that are common within the U.S. intelligence community. The Times flags one of its more interesting points: al Qaeda may well be on the downswing. Other high-level points include: 

 

  • The whole international system—as constructed following WWII—will be revolutionized. Not only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India and China— have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes and rules of the game.
  • The unprecedented transfer of wealth roughly from West to East now under way will continue for the foreseeable future.
  • Unprecedented economic growth, coupled with 1.5 billion more people, will put pressure on resources—particularly energy, food, and water—raising the specter of scarcities emerging as demand outstrips supply.
  • The potential for conflict will increase owing partly to political turbulence in parts of the greater Middle East.

 

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New global scenarios from the National Intelligence Council | bestpenalty.com / November 24th, 2008, 10:15 am / #

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