Deep Currents

There is a brand-new set of scenarios, “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World,” laying out the future as viewed through the lens of American national security, the latest installment of a publication put out once every five years by the National Intelligence Council. They’re worth a read at the very least because it more or less represents the views that are common within the U.S. intelligence community. The Times flags one of its more interesting points: al Qaeda may well be on the downswing. Other high-level points include: 

The whole international system—as constructed following WWII—will be revolutionized. Not only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India and China— have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes and rules of the game.

The unprecedented transfer of wealth roughly from West to East now under way will continue for the foreseeable future.

Unprecedented economic growth, coupled with 1.5 billion more people, will put pressure on resources—particularly energy, food, and water—raising the specter of scarcities emerging as demand outstrips supply.

The potential for conflict will increase owing partly to political turbulence in parts of the greater Middle East.

Written: November 24th, 2008