Deep Currents

The result of the attacks in Mumbai could be a spike in the tensions between Hindus and Muslims that have dogged India for much of the last decade, reversing the recent progress with Pakistan and perhaps even resulting ina Hindu nationalist government in the next cycle, speculates Robert Kaplan in the Atlantic:

…the immediate result of the Mumbai terror attacks will be a further hardening of inter-communal relations within India. The latest attacks will also increase the likelihood that in national elections slated for early 2009, the result will be a BJP-led government, as Hindus, who comprise the overwhelming majority of Indian voters, take on another layer of insecurity.

Internationally, this event will further aggravate Indian-Pakistani relations, making it harder for the incoming Obama Administration to effect a rapprochement between the two countries, necessary for progress in Afghanistan, where the two subcontinental states are engaged in a proxy struggle that goes on behind the immediate conflict between the United States and al-Qaeda.

Providing massive economic growth has been the core strength of the Chinese Communist Party since Deng Xiaoping. But today the Chinese economy is faltering, and the World Bank just released a report detailing the many uncertainties that it faces as the world heads into what could be an extended downturn:

With global growth prospects for 2009 weaker than they have been in a long time, China’s economy is braced for a significant further slowdown, says the World Bank’s latest edition of the China Quarterly Update. Fortunately, China’s domestic economy has several sources of strength, including still robust growth in several parts and strong macroeconomic fundamentals that provide room for policy stimulus to dampen the downturn. What does this all mean, for China and the rest of the World?

Brad Setser at the Council on Foreign Relations sums up the following top 7 take-aways:

1. China was no workers’ paradise during the boom years.
2. China really is a manufacturing and investment driven economy.
3. China’s current slowdown was made in China, not in the world.
4. There is more bad news ahead.
5. The fiscal stimulus is real, but modest. 
6. The last thing anyone needs to worry about is fall in Chinese demand for US treasuries.
7. The way China manages its reserves matters immensely for the world not just China

Now that we know what the Boomers will be doing in the next 20 years, we can move on to the generation that is now the largest in America: the Millennials, those of us born between 1978 and 2000, who are already taking the reins. The new book Generation We (free online!) has a decidedly positive spin on what kind of attitudes we bring to the table: Continue reading

The Financial Times has a piece that neatly sums up the driving forces behind the drug war that rages on in Mexico, where the government’s control over its own territory now resembles swiss cheese and high-ranking police officers have been caught in the pay of organized crime:

• The cocaine market in the U.S. is maturing, leading to turf wars
• President Calderón allowed some of the barons to be extradited to the U.S., removing the executives from a number of operations and leading to succession battles
• President Calderón sent in the army to confront the gangs, which has stirred the pot

These gangs rank among the best example in the world today of the global guerrillas that John Robb has predicted. They’re on our southern doorstep, and we’re funding them with our weekend partying. 

The horrific attacks that occurred in Mumbai today–and may still be ongoing–were the first act of spectacular terrorism in quite some time. Not much is known just yet. The Times has a few photos, there are more on Flickr, Metroblogging Mumbai has ongoing commentary, and Dina is one of many local Tweeters who are providing moment-to-moment updates. GroundReport is doing a good job of aggregating citizen reports. Both Wikipedia and Mahalo have constantly updated pages with known facts. Continue reading